Despite the pressures of persistent inflation and the emergence of new global tariffs, consumers appear ready to spend even while expecting to pay more this year, as one key retail period replaces another over the coming weeks and months.
Back-to-school shopping is either done, under way or about to begin, depending on where you live. In any case, spending for back-to-school needs continues to grow – it’s expected to hit nearly $900 per household this year, an increase of around 25% over the past five years, Empower reports.
Families are spending more, but they’re spending more carefully; according to Forbes, inflation is making them prioritize essentials. They’re shopping earlier, driven by anxiety over tariffs and how they’re going to impact prices. And more than 90% of parents say they’re shopping in person, with fewer than 10% planning to shop exclusively online.
Meanwhile, consumers are already looking ahead to the holiday season, for which shoppers seem to be getting an early start. With kids barely back in school, many consumers will already be starting to make plans for their holiday wants and needs in a September-October window, according to Bazaar Voice.
More shoppers – younger ones, in particular – are waiting for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and other sales events as they actively seek budget-friendly options and their allegiance to name brands continues to wither.
What do holiday shoppers want most? Relevant, timely and helpful promotions at various touchpoints. For example, Bazaar Voice notes, an increasing number of shoppers look to social media as their entry point to purchasing holiday gifts.
While retailers typically complete their winter holiday buying plans by June, the Associated Press reports that “vacillating trade policies” have complicated retailers’ and brands’ usual plans to prepare for the holiday selling season. Some retail suppliers and buyers scaled back their holiday lines rather than risk footing a huge tariff bill or allowing expensive imports to go unsold. The result: Stores may not have certain things that shoppers want.
Additionally, the unpredictability of trade policies has contributed to a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment, Reuters reports, as shoppers expect weak economic growth and higher inflation in months leading up to the holidays. Target’s incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke told the news service: “Value is very top of mind for consumers right now. They’re looking to stretch their budget; they’re looking to navigate inflation and uncertainty around tariffs.”
So, what can we expect for the rest of the year?
Join RDSolutions and Supermarket Guru Phil Lempert for What’s Really Happening in Retail – Insights for the Back Half of 2025. This candid, data-driven discussion on the trends, disruptions and market forces shaping the months ahead leverages proprietary pricing data, in-store observations and national field team insights to take you beyond the headlines and reveal what’s really happening on the shelf, and what it all means for your year-end selling plans.
You’ll learn:
- How back-to-school trends may foreshadow the 2025 holiday season
- The ripple effects of major brand moves like the Kraft Heinz split
- Shifts in pricing, promotions and assortment impacting shopper behavior
- Real-world examples of execution at the shelf influencing sales
- Data-driven strategies to navigate seasonal shifts with confidence
The webinar is scheduled for Wednesday, September 10, 2025, 10 am PST / 1 pm EST.
CLICK HERE TO REGISTER: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_w8CEoUE-T7uAYjRZDN3WTA#/registration
